Scenario Planning

Scenario planning, pioneered by Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s, is now recognized as a fundamental tool for thinking strategically about the future. Today, organizations and industries are facing tremendous change, uncertainty, and decisions that have huge opportunities and risks. Anticipating the future in this environment calls for creativity, insight, and intuition. Scenarios--stories about possible futures--combine these elements into a methodology to create viable strategies to succeed.

Pantelis, Inc. offers an Introduction to Scenario Planning workshop and consulting support to facilitate scenario planning sessions.

Why Use Scenarios?
Scenarios are powerful planning tools because the future is unpredictable. Unlike traditional forecasting or market research, scenarios present alternative images instead of extrapolating current trends from the present. Scenarios also include qualitative perspectives and the potential for discontinuities that econometric models cannot. Therefore, creating scenarios requires us to question our assumptions about the way the world works so we may anticipate decisions that might be missed or denied. Within the organization, scenarios provide a common vocabulary and a simple, effective basis for communicating complex-conditions and options.

Good scenarios have the power to break old stereotypes, and as their creators, we assume ownership and put them to work. Using scenarios is rehearsing the future, and by recognizing the warning signs and the drama that is unfolding we can avoid surprises, adapt, and act effectively. Decisions which have been pre-tested against a range of what fate may offer are more likely to stand the test of time, produce better strategies, and create competitive advantage. In reality, the end result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of tomorrow but better decisions today.